Sacrifice For The Greater Good .... Is It Really??

 So you're watching the big game with your buddies.  Your team is playing their crosstown rivals.  It's the 6th inning and the score is tied 1-1.  The next batter steps up to the plate with a runner on first and no outs.  He lays down a bunt - a beaut of a slow roller up the first base line. The runner is safe at second base and the only play is to first base where the batter is out.  The batter who just sacrificed is giving and receiving fist bumps from his teammates in the dugout. You're bragging - "Now there's a team player".  "You don't see that anymore", you tell your friends.  With a runner on second and one out instead of a runner on first with zero outs, you're convinced this was a great decision - but was it?

Below is a table called the "run expectancy matrix" or some call it "baseball's 24 states".   This data tells us the average runs that are scored for a certain situation.  In other words with a runner on first and second and no outs, the MLB average runs scored was 1.43. 

Base Runners	0 outs	1 outs	2 outs
Empty	.48	.258	.096
1st	.85	.502	.217
2nd	1,06	.649	.313
3rd	1.31	.899	.354
1st_2nd	1.43	.893	.434
1st_3rd	1.68	1.14	.475
2nd_3rd	1,89	1.29	.571
Loaded	2.26	1.53	.592

source - Baseball Prospectus

Take a closer look at the table.  Was the sac-bunt really worth it?  The data says "No" with a capital "N".  The average runs scored with a runner on first and no outs is .85.  The average runs scored with one out and a runner on second - .65.

As the great Earl Weaver once said - "Your most precious possessions on offense are your twenty-seven outs"

So that's it then.  The sac bunt is the stupidest thing since antenna balls.  OK, before you go throwing empty beer cans at the TV and cursing the manager, let's look at numbers and how they can sometimes slightly fabricate.  Then we'll talk about context.

As we all have heard - numbers can lie.  The numbers in the matrix are an average, and they are just that - an average.  Take an average of three test scores - 100, 75 and 40, the average being ~71.  This student has a 71 average yet he was highly successful one time. He may have studied extra hard for that 100 or the material was easy for him to digest.  In any case, that's how we need to look at those numbers in the matrix.  There are certain times in which the mix of runners and batter will be the perfect storm to get a run via the sac bunt.  There is also the situation where a pitcher is at bat.  With a runner on first, less than two outs and a pitcher at bat, a big inning looks bleak and the best play is the sac bunt.  If this "perfect storm" occurs in a low-scoring close game - the sac bunt may also be necessary.  That's the context I was talking about. 

To quote Coach Weaver again - "If you play for one run, that's all you'll get"


So there you have it.  When your watching a game and you're thinking - "a sac would be good here", it may not be the case and the manager knows the numbers, and the context.

In the future I'll do an entry on the sac bunt in more detail.

Thanks for reading
-Tom