First or Last Out at Third

"It has long been an axiom of mine that the little things are infinitely the most important."
-Arthur Conan Doyle

I was watching an out-of-town Tigers game on MLB Network last week.  Two of my favorite broadcasters were doing the game - Mario Impemba and Rod Allen (Tigers feed).  After an over-ambitious (and slightly ignorant) player was the 1st out at third base they brought up a popular baseball axiom - "Never be the first or last out at third base".  As viewers/fans, we probably hear this often from broadcasters yet they never really let us know why.  In the words of the great Desi Arnaz - "Please 'splain"...

The explanations are actually fairly simple for this common baseball precept.  We're going to reference the "Run Expectancy Matrix" below.  The table represents the average number of runs that scored, for a specific base/out situation.  Take a look at it for a sec and get familiar with it.  

OK let's cover the first circumstance - "Never be the 1st out at third."  With no outs, the scoring chance is almost the same from second base as it is from third base.  The player on second can get to third via a sac-bunt or sac-fly thus putting him a great position to score from a variety of ways.  From second base the player can also score by a hit (just as he could if he was on third).  Do you get it now why you shouldn't be the first out at third?

Now on to "Never be the 3rd out at third base".  Basically there are three reasons:

1. You're the final out.  That's it - dunzo!!  Back to the dugout and collect you glove.
2. The run expectancy matrix says so.  With 2 outs the average runs scored are almost the same with a player on 2nd base as it is with a player on 3rd base.
3. With two outs the scenarios to get you home are almost identical from 2nd or 3rd. With 2 outs the sac-fly is out of the equation so a base-hit is the only way to get you home either way. 

Baseball has many of these little adages.  I hope this post cleared up one of them for you.

Thanks for Reading!
-Tom

Tommy John Surgery and The Witch is Dead

"Good habits formed at youth make all the difference."
-Aristotle


I was watching "Hot Stove" on MLB Network today and they were discussing the increase of Tommy John surgeries not only among MLB Players but also among college, high school and even middle school baseball players!  At the end of the piece they were wondering "why".   Why??  Anyone who has witnessed the "win at all costs" attitude of youth sports can figure it out.  Take for instance the pitcher in middle school who can throw 80 MPH (darn good for that level) and is striking out almost everyone he faces.  Why tinker with him even though his delivery is akin to Mark Pryor's (aka - a disaster)?  God forbid they should step back and take a look at his pitching motion and maybe show him a thing or two about a sound delivery.  They could have saved him from pain.

And it's not just about baseball or even injury.  Take the girl with the crazy jumpshot that scores a ton of points in AAU but when she hits high school her body grows into something that can no longer support that shot (bye bye scholarship).  Or the football player that receives one of the many youth related injuries  and winds up selling dimebags on the corner (do they even have dimebags anymore? Do they even sell them on the corner?)  Regardless, the leaders of youth sports need to step up and address these issues.  I consider myself optimistic, but not sure if this is going to happen. 

I'd love to hear thoughts on this ...



"Oh, thank you so much! Now we can go back to the Wizard, and tell him the Wicked Witch is dead! "
-Dorothy, The Wizard of Oz

Now on to the second part of this post.  The witch is dead!  The 14 year witch that is.  The CBA was signed yesterday and one of the points in it was to rid baseball of the All-Star game having an impact on home-field advantage in the World Series.  There are rules and regulations in all sports in which fans do not agree with.  Most of these have cons as well as a few pros, but having the outcome of the All-Star game determine home field advantage in the World Series is just plain dumb with no pros that I can see.

I despised this for two reasons.   

Picture if you will (I'm channeling my inner Rod Serling) - The American League all-star team has about 60% of its players from teams in contention for a playoff spot.  The National League all-star team has only 40% of contending players on their team.  With that silly rule in place this tells you the American League players are going to take the game a little more seriously than the senior circuit players will.  As a bonus con to this reason there can be some bitterness among players who are on teams in contention toward players of teams who are not in contention and are dogging it.

Forcing players to take a game seriously that has in the past typically been viewed as fun, can cause injury.  How would upper (and lower) management of a team feel if their star player was injured playing a little too hard during the all-star game?  Looks like their playoff chances aren't so good anymore huh?

Thanks for reading
-Tom  

My Favorite Baseball Books

"I hope everyone that is reading this is having a really good day. And if you are not, just know that in every new minute that passes you have an opportunity to change that."
- Gillian Anderson (aka Agent Scully)

 
I love to read.  I also love baseball.  That, one would think, means I must digest a ton of baseball books.  Unfortunatley, no.  Most baseball books are biographies and that is one book-genre I can't get into (I could hear my father now - "Read a biography, you may learn something").  Nonetheless, I have a good number of baseball books under my belt.  Here are some of my favorites

Reading and learning about baseball strategy is fun (for me anyway).  Basic Baseball Strategy by Chuck Freeman is a great book for Strategy 101.  I bet even the seasoned baseball fan will pick up a thing or two.

Baseball Strategies (several authors) is the Grandaddy of all strategy books.  There is so much detail it may bore you.  But if your into managerial decisions - the book is great!  This is a nice book to have as a reference.  If  you see or hear something during a game and want to know more about it - this is the #1 resource to have at your side.

Stats are a big part of baseball and baseball-history.  They have been around since the 1800's. Ever changing and always "improving".  This book - Beyond Batting Average by Lee Panas, starts simple and builds up to the more sophisticated stats of today.  If you want to get into the newer stats - this is for you.  It's very easy to understand, especially for the mathematically-challenged (like me).

Pure Baseball by Keith Hernandez is one of those books you either love or hate.  Some say its boring.  This book is a pitch-by-pitch analysis of two baseball games.  Keith chose two games in which a lot was going on and all the bases (pun intended) were covered.  Check it out!

I love this one!  in 2012 I wrote a blog post about it.  Read it here - http://sandlotwisdom.blogspot.com/2012/06/book-review-prophet-of-sandlots.html

No, this is not a rulebook.  Well, it is, but it's so much more!  The Official Rules of Baseball Illustrated by David Nemec takes the most well-known and prominent rules of the game and analyzes them by using historical anecdotes.  A great concept, that is an equally great read.

Finally this one.  3 Nights in August by Buzz Bissinger offers an insight to a three game series between the Cardinals and Cubs from the perspective of the Cardinals manager at the time - Tony La Russa.  Very insightful and interesting.  Highly recommended!

Now you know some of my favorites, let me know some of yours!

Thanks for reading.
-Tom 

Shift Work

"I think the story of 'Alice in Wonderland' in a way is a reminder that life is frightening, it can shift on you at any moment."
-Michael Sheen

(note - the links in this post will open in a new tab/window)
 We all know the rule - "Never discuss politics, religion or the shift".  Yes, it's quite a hot topic.  I never assume, so if you don't know what the shift is you can read a short overview of it toward the end (second paragraph from the bottom) of one of my previous blog posts - http://sandlotwisdom.blogspot.com/2012/05/strategy-and-tactics-infield.html

 The shift is bitterly debated between sportscasters, sports-writers, MLB bureaucrats, and fans.  These debates are about 1. Does the shift work? and 2. Should it be outlawed?

Williams and Boudreau

In a nutshell the infield shift (aka "the shfit") was created to derail the efforts of dead-pull hitters (a hitter who can only hit to his "power side" - e.g. left field for righty's).  The infielders are moved to one side or another of the infield to blanket one side.  One of the earliest uses of the shift was in the 1946 World Series by the Cardinals against Ted Williams of the Red Sox.  The Cardinals picked up the idea from Lou Boudreau's Cleveland Indians who also used the shift against Williams. 


 The debates rage on.  Is the shift useful and effective? How can we forget the 2009 World Series when Johnny Damon stole two bases against the Phillies when they pulled a shift?  Let's look at the usefulness of the shift.  I would like you to take a look at two web pages.  They're not lengthy articles filled with charts and graphs.  One contains a chart I want you to look at and the other some stats.

Take a look at this page - https://checkdownsports.net/2016/06/16/who-shifts/  .  About 1/4 the way down (just below the photo of the shift) is a chart.  Go ahead take a look.  I'll wait right here ...


You came back!  Glad you didn't abandon me (like that girl did in high school for the second-string kicker on the JV team - but I digress ...).    After studying the chart you probably noticed a few things.  1. - The league as a whole shifts a lot! ... 2. - Some individual teams shift a lot!!  Seems like every chance they get ... 3. - Some teams use the shift more wisely than others ... and 4. - Some teams hate it!!  

Now, let's take a look at this page from the wonderful fangraphs site - 
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=0&season=2016&month=63&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=5,d

There's a lot going on here, but it's just basically a page with stats on it.  Notice the "Split" option (Fig. 1 below).  It's set to "Shift - Traditional".  In essence that means stats against the shift.

Fig. 1

If you scroll down a bit you'll see the below in Fig. 2. It's sorted by Plate Appearance (PA) to show which players are shifted against the most.  Notice David Ortiz does very well against the shift (.340 BA).

Fig. 2

With all the facts presented above we seem to be swimming in an sea of subjectivity.  Draw your own conclusions and feel free to leave comments on what you think.

There is talk from the MLB commish on banning the shift.  This, in my opinion is not subjective, it's just dumb (almost as dumb as the all-star game determining home field advantage - again I digress ...).  ESPN published an article back in April on how Joe Giardi would like to see the shift banned.  You can read some of Joe's stupidity here - http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/15389059/joe-girardi-new-york-yankees-ban-shift-baseball

You may (or may not - that's OK) have noticed that most shifts are against left handed batters.  Recently there has been a trend where teams are shifting against righties and it's working!  Why, you may ask haven't teams used the shift against the righty?  The answer contains three reasons - one of which is antiquated thus rendered invalid.  Remember, to shift against a right-handed batter you need to stack the left side of the infield toward third base.  The 3rd baseman will play very close to the line, the shortstop and 2nd baseman close by.  The first baseman will play in between first and second base.  With a runner on first this configuration is almost impossible to pull-off defensively.  The first baseman needs to hold the runner thus leaving a gaping hole on the right side of the infield (reason one!).  Typically second basemen aren't that adept at going to their left (if they were they'd be a shortstop).  The shift against a righty may require a second baseman to make a play to his left (reason two!).  Years ago a shortstop had problems throwing from "the hole" - moving to his right to make a play.  That was a concern for shifting against righties - having to make a longer throw since they are playing further away from first base. These days this really isn't a worry since shortstops can make that throw unbalanced (reason three debunked!).

Lastly, let's all turn and face the 800 lb. elephant in the room shall we?  If defenses are moving players to one side of the infield (very unorthodox) then why can't hitters learn to hit to the opposite side (a hitting skill since the 1800's)?  This is no conundrum - it's the almighty dollar.  Power makes money and to hit with power you should pull the ball.  Simple.

I hope you enjoy learning about baseball strategy.  It's what makes baseball interesting.

Thanks for reading

-Tom